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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AUTOMATION CONSULTANTS |
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Volume 11, Number 2, December 2011 Blending
User’s Group Newsletter In This Issue Spotlight
on 2012 New
Fuel Specifications NIR
and NMR analyzer Modeling with Cluster Analysis CSNOx-Miracle
Bunker Scrubber Blending Training Courses Calendar Spotlight on…2012..↑
or ↓ ? Where are we going in 2012? The current outlook US and European Union economic crisis caused significant decrease in liquid fuel consumption resulting in refinery closures, and reduction in shipping capacity due to weakened trade. Forecast for 2012: Prices will stay mostly flat with some oscillations around the 2011 mean because of political uncertainty: in US, with elections in November 2012 and uncertain Democratic or Republican outcome with radically different energy agendas, and the same with the French presidential elections in April, everybody will wait for the results, and nothing significant will occur in 2012, short of a new war in the Middle East. For marine bunkers, the situation is slightly different: In 2012, the weak trade forced a reduction in container lines shipping capacity, which results in a temporary softening of prices. However, any improvement in the economic climate and increased trade, probably starting in early 2013 will lead to a significant (huge?) in crease in the marine bunker prices. Why? Because with fewer existing refineries, increase in refinery capacity for more profitable deep conversion (resid destruction), and no interest whatsover in desulfurizing residue, there will be a shortage of residue which will drive up the bunker prices. In addition, the requirements for 1%S for ECA's and 0.1%S for EU/NA port berthing will put pressure on prices and survival of shipowners because of approximately US$300/ton price differentials, which translates into millions more in additional fuel expenses... On the positive side, the big news is hydraulic fracturing (or "fracking") of shale gas and oil formations, essentially opening up an unimaginable, immense quantities of hydrocarbons just about anywhere in the world. In the case of natural gas-essentially methane-can be used directly in transportation, or indirectly via Gas To Liquids (GTL) conversion, a la Fischer-Tropsch into gasoline and diesel fuel. This has the potential to cut in half the price of gasoline and diesel, but for the politicians... What is stopping us from "fracking"? The same corrupt and inept politicians bickering and fighting for their own gain at the expense of the population. The so-called Middle Class is an "endangered species" in US and the EU Mediterranean countries... Elections! In US, France, etc....so politicians are worried about re-elections...and will be more flexible towards the electorate...and hopefully result in less ridiculous regulations. On the negative side, the economic depression in US and EU, coupled with incompetent and corrupt political leadership resulted in decreased consumption of transportation fuels, affecting all of us, refiners, blenders, traders, and consumers. In the US and EU, the consumption between 2008-2011 decreased by 5 to 7%, and a number of refineries closed because of negative profit margins. In addition, US and EU regulators, ignoring the economic crisis and high unemployment, are going crazy with new more stringent environmental rules which will make it very difficult and expensive to stay in business. If you think that the BRIC countries or the Middle East are immune to all of this, they are not , because a significant part of their output goes to the "relatively" economically depressed countries (US, EU), which currently are buying less. Other Trends Renewables are taking a "hit". After
all the propaganda and untold billions of dollars spent, they are still a
minuscule part, and besides high costs and not so low pollution levels,
enthusiasm is starting to wane. In the US, we just missed the RFS2 target,
and it will get worse in the next 2 years when we hit the Ethanol "Blend
Wall"!.. Same with electric cars, solar power, and windmills...See the 2011 US National Research Council report on renewables....A good picture of the energy flows in the US is the study by Lawrence Livermore Lab (energy research as backup for their nuclear weapons work!): 4 quads biomass vs. 98 total energy consumption! To get a copy of the report, click below. New Fuels Specifications · EPA approved E15 gasoline is "frozen" · EPA proposed Tier 3 Gasoline o Lower Sulfur to 10ppm or less from today's 30ppm average and 80ppm cap o Impact: US up front capital required of $10-17 billion, and operating cost of 5-13 billion/year · CARB new rule for bunkers extends the 1%S fuel usage from 24nm to 40nm Get
copy Of Colonial Pipeline Dec 2011 Product Specs World-Wide Bunker Fuel Reminder!!! · January 1, 2012 Sulfur max 3.5% · August 1, 2012 All ECA's Sulfur max 1% · Currently, All EU community ports Sulfur max is 0.1% if berthed for 2 or more hours · ECA visitors: be prepared for double fuel bills: higher fuel costs and the need to carry and switch between fuels Use of Renewables:
Ethanol and BioDiesel This varies by country, so it is important to check with the local authorities for the latest rules. In US, the rules cover · a FIXED amount of Ethanol, e.g. 10vol% max; the 15vol% is not approved by US Congress.... · a variable amount of FAME-type BioDiesel, up to 5% max · A fuel producer "quota" is in the latest Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2) In EU, each member state has a different calendar for adopting the EU mandate Get copy Of EU directive and quotas by country, and biofuels specs here NIR Analyzer Modeling Using Cluster
Analysis NIR and NMR multi-property analyzers are cheap per property measured (up to 15-20 properties), fast (for good property control), and very reliable. analyzers. The challenge is to build a reasonable model
following the ASTM NIR-modeling "bible", ASTM E1655. You can use a
Cluster Analysis of your blending recipes for the previous 12 months (per
grade) to reduce them to a handful of recipes based on statistical
similarity.You can get a free Cluster Analyzer Excel add-in from Fernando Cinquegrani's web site (he's with Microsoft
Italia) "Miracle"
Bunker Scrubber Low Sulfur Bunker with 1% or lower Sulfur costs at least USD 200 to 300 more per ton than the conventional 3.5% Sulfur bunker. Scrubbers make it possible to cut significantly on the cost of a voyage by allowing you to minimize or completely avoid the use of 1% or 0.1%S in ECA's. New, revolutionary technology developed by Ecospec, called CSNOX for cleaning exhaust gas system without chemicals and no residuals is in sea trials. www.ecospec.com Blending Training Courses Upcoming
Blending Courses January 16-17, 2012 Singapore:. Bunker
Register
January 18-20, 2012 Singapore:. Gas+Diesel Register Fuels (Gasoline and Diesel) Blending Technology
and Economics (FBTE) This is a 3 day in-depth blending course for Refiners, Traders,
and independent terminal operators examining the latest specs, Ethanol and
Biodiesel blending, EPA Complex Model, RFS2 and RIN calculations, blend
component properties and pricing methods, blending equipment, Lab and on-line
analysis, and use of optimizers to maximize blend profit Bunker Fuel
Blending (BFB) This is a 2 day in-depth blending course for Bunkering
Terminals Operators, Traders, and
examining the latest ISO 8217:2005 and 2010 specs, ECA/SECA specs,
blending techniques, calculation of nonlinear properties like viscosity,
CCAI, compatibility, etc; blending equipment, Lab and on-line sampling and
analysis, basis for dispute resolution (both quality and quantity), and use
of optimizers to maximize blend profit. Blending Courses Schedule January 16-17, 2012 Singapore:. Bunker Register January 18-20, 2012 Singapore:.
Gas+Diesel Register May 9 - 10, 2012 Bahrain
Gas+Diesel Register May 13-14, 2012 Dubai Bunker Register May 17-18, 2012 Singapore:. Bunker Register Happy Holidays-Merry Christmas-Happy
2012 Have a wonderful, safe and prosperous Holiday
Season and New Year! Contact Ara
Barsamian Refinery
Automation Institute, LLC 6 Leslie
Court, Morristown, NJ 07960 USA Tel:
+1-973-644-2270 E-mail: jabarsa@refautom.com
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